Why were the polls so consistently biased towards Democrats? Had they invested more, we would have been likelier to change our rating. With the benefit of a month to reflect, here are five takeaways from 2020's surprises and three lessons for how we might recalibrate our approach for the next cycle. : An independent online political newsletter has changed its status on 20 races for the House of Representatives, saying Friday that they were all improving in the direction of Democrats. Dem Both parties invested accordingly, but the down-ballot anti-Trump "suburban revolt" never materialized on Election Night. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 House forecast. But at the time, neither the NRCC nor the CLF was putting their money behind their talk in press releases. A New York judge is wading through the electoral “errors and delays” that have marred the race between Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) and former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R), one of the last remaining uncalled races in the country, the Syracuse Post-Standard reports. 17 But the more polls we saw, the less accurate our forecast became. Democrats' genuinely progressive challengers fared the worst. Had Republicans detected the true down-ballot dynamics, they could have won the House back. //-->. As tempting as it is to believe all races have become nationalized and can be predicted with algorithms, candidate quality and local concerns still matter. For example, neither party spent a dime in South Texas, where Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-15) hung on by just three points. : Dem 0 But in the House, Republicans nearly swept the 27 races in our Toss Up column and won seven races in our "Lean" and "Likely" Democrat columns. These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. Cook subscribers can read the analysis. But this time, these voters could vote directly against Trump but still vote for a more conventional Republican they liked. 0 Personally I expect these numbers to shift a bit in the Republicans favor even if 2020 is an otherwise good year for Dems. GOP outside groups failed to make a significant investment in a dozen races Democrats won by less than five points, including two they won anyway (CA-39 and FL-27). In 2018, Democrats ran up the score by recruiting political outsiders, especially women with national security backgrounds, to challenge GOP "insiders." That initial instinct proved to be correct. Likely The same was true of private polls. Why? Cook Political Report'sfinal prediction for the composition of the House following the 2020 election should be music to Democrats' ears. However, a polling error and a late GOP uptick wouldn't be mutually exclusive, so it's impossible to discount the possibility entirely. Lean 2 But as life (hopefully) returns to normal, we'll recommit ourselves to cultivating as many relationships with local journalists and state-based sources as DC-based consultants and pollsters, who can often get trapped in an echo chamber and miss important signals. The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037, Five Takeaways From Our 2020 House Forecast — and Three Resolutions for 2021 and Beyond. It will require discipline to stick to these fundamentals when polls start to drown everything else out. The NRCC spent just $96,000 in coordinated expenditures in FL-27 and $95,000 in CA-39 — a tiny fraction of what it spent in scores of races that both parties' polls (and we) considered more competitive. Our Electoral and Senate ratings generally performed well, with every race at least "leaning" to one party breaking that direction and Toss Ups breaking to the GOP — save for Georgia, where Joe Biden prevailed and both Senate races are in runoffs. Rep Ind, 0 You can also view this forecast as … We don’t talk enough about its shortcomings, not just in head-to-head, but also in figuring out what voters are really prioritizing. In its final forecast for Tuesday's election, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted eight additional House seats toward Democrats and projected on Monday that the party would expand its majority in the chamber by 10 to 15. Toss Up In 2018, Democrats won most of the Toss Ups and even four seats we had rated as "leaning" or "likely" Republican — not entirely dissimilar. Early in each election cycle, the most important data point — and often the only one available — is the result of the previous election. Throughout the cycle, Democrats rolled their eyes at Republicans' incessant ads on these themes. The most credible theory might be one articulated by analyst David Shor: that for years, there's been a rising correlation between low levels of social and institutional trust, higher support for President Trump, and survey non-response. August 30, 2019 @Redistrict. 25. Rep Both surveys nailed those upsets exactly. In September, an 1892 Polling survey for the NRCC showed Republican Maria Elvira Salazar ahead of Rep. Donna Shalala (FL-27) 46 percent to 43 percent. This kind of analysis will undoubtedly lead to changes in the way pollsters approach future races, and perhaps some innovative methodologies that could be road-tested in 2021's off-year elections. Our approach to rating races in 2020 was the same as in the past: we construct our analysis based on recent election results and trends, publicly available polling and fundraising data, and hundreds of off-the-record conversations with candidates, party committees, outside groups, pollsters, consultants and state-based journalists. In a new report by the nonpartisan election forecaster the Cook Political Report, seven House races have shifted in the Democratic Party's favor, ... Monday November 16, 2020. Fortunately, reapportionment and redistricting gives us plenty of hard data to crunch in 2021 — and there's no point in rating House races until we know what the lines are going to look like in state to state. 2020 House Vote Tracker | The Cook Political Report 2020 National House Vote Tracker By David Wasserman, Sophie Andrews, Leo Saenger, Lev Cohen, Ally Flinn, and Griff Tatarsky Please note that results are not yet final except where noted in the table below. But Trump's presence atop the ballot did something else as well. One Democratic consultant told us: "Polling used to be something that helped ‘guide’ our decision making and the conversation, but now we’ve become addicted to it and have put too much faith in its abilities. This wasn't just the case in heavily blue-collar districts, but high-college suburbs as well, where Trump's 2020 vote totals far outpaced his 2016 totals. Rep But for now, it's okay to be patient. It helped that these candidates didn't look like Trump or GOP leaders, and many (though not all) sounded quite different from Trump too. The current 2020 Senate forecast from The Cook Political Report. Click on bars to see solid seats breakdown, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037, FL-26 Otherwise, 25 of the 27 Toss Ups broke to the GOP. Dem These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. Had all Democrats outperformed by that much, they would have gained a dozen seats. : And, FiveThirtyEight had Democrats leading the House ballot by 7.3 points; they won it by 3.1 points. Solid Democrat Solid Republican. RATINGS SUMMARY. Trump won 74 million votes, unquestionably driving out millions of low-propensity, right-leaning voters who would otherwise never turn out to vote for a more conventional down-ballot Republican in a midterm or off-year election. And what lessons can we draw for 2022? And, many paid the price. Now that all 50 states have certified their results (save for one House race in New York's 22nd CD), it's a natural time for a reckoning on what transpired down-ballot. 14 Ind, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 info@cookpolitical.com. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. We keep missing people who end up turning out to vote.". 0 These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning. 0 But Republicans never followed through on their early insistence they would spend in Scranton against Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-08) and abandoned the race against Rep. Lauren Underwood (IL-14) after their least preferred candidate won the GOP primary. In the Cook report… ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017 ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018 ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2020 Quarterly reports," accessed September 21, 2020 But in hindsight, our March House ratings, which had 20 Democrats and just five Republicans in Toss Up, wound up being more accurate than our final pre-election ratings, which had 17 Republicans and nine Democrats in that category. • And, they won. Ind, 9 After the latest update from Kern County, Valadao’s lead of 2,644 votes in the race shrank on Friday to 1,618 votes.The number of votes left to count from Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties has dwindled, the lead was enough for Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and NBC News contributor to call the race. Republicans won all 27 House races the Cook Political Report rated as “toss-ups” in its 2020 election analysis, in addition to picking up seven of … However, there were likely far more voters who entered the final week undecided on their congressional choice than their choice for president. Cook Political Report 2020 House Ratings As of November 2, 2020 This table is associated with the following map URL. Meanwhile, of the 29 House Republican freshmen from 2018, only one wasn't a man and only one wasn't white. To be fair, no one saw a close race in TX-15 coming. And, COVID-19 likely exacerbated this partisan non-response bias this year. Five Democrat-controlled seats, five Republican-controlled seats, and the Michigan seat held by Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash have all shifted to likely wins for Democrats. 3 Copyright © 2018 by Cook Political Report. The Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce our 2020 House district databook, a one-stop shop for statistics on demographics and recent election results in all 435 congressional districts. The top three most expensive House races of 2020 — in terms of both candidate and outside spending — were California's 25th District ($37.9 million), New Mexico's 2nd District ($36.7 million) and Texas's 22nd District ($34.1 million), according to the Center for Responsive Politics. David Wasserman. Of the 13 Republicans who flipped Democratic-held seats in 2020, all were women and/or minorities. Cook Political Report shifted more congressional races to the left, predicting that 2020 could be an even better year for Democrats than the 2018 "blue wave." But this time, instead of a strong majority, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is left with 222 seats and virtually no margin for error — especially with Reps. Cedric Richmond (LA-02), Deb Haaland (NM-01) and Marcia Fudge (OH-11) set to decamp for administration posts. United States interactive 2020 House Cook Political Report forecast • Medicare-for-All proponents Kara Eastman and Dana Balter lost to GOP Reps. Don Bacon (NE-02) and John Katko (NY-24) by five and ten points respectively, despite Biden carrying both districts by seven points. 0 And, they won. The Cook Political Report; Ratings; House HOUSE 2020 House Race Ratings Nov 2, 2020 PDF Document. In January, there will be nine "Biden Republicans" and at most seven "Trump Democrats.". 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