In 2019, we started out with the presumption that Democrats were in a decent position to retain the majority, but had benefited from plenty of casual Trump voters not showing up in the midterms and stood to lose a few seats as those voters reentered the fold. The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends. The consensus of hundreds of pre-election polls conducted for both parties was that House Democrats were the ones on offense. And yet, this time much of it led us and others astray. 0 2 The … The final FiveThirtyEight average pegged Biden's lead at 8.4 points; he won the popular vote by 4.5 points. Dem Cook Political Report: “There have only been three federal elections in the last 100 years decided by fewer than 20 votes…But in an insult to injury for House Democrats, who have already lost a dozen incumbents to the GOP, Democrats are currently trailing by a scant six votes in Iowa’s 2nd CD and 12 votes in New York’s 22nd CD as both races head for lengthy legal fights.” One Democratic consultant told us: "Polling used to be something that helped ‘guide’ our decision making and the conversation, but now we’ve become addicted to it and have put too much faith in its abilities. 12 It now sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election. That initial instinct proved to be correct. Ind, 0 : Rep As tempting as it is to believe all races have become nationalized and can be predicted with algorithms, candidate quality and local concerns still matter. Trump won 74 million votes, unquestionably driving out millions of low-propensity, right-leaning voters who would otherwise never turn out to vote for a more conventional down-ballot Republican in a midterm or off-year election. Mucarsel-Powell, WA-03 But this time, these voters could vote directly against Trump but still vote for a more conventional Republican they liked. Pelosi can thank these missed GOP opportunities for her razor-thin majority. For example, neither party spent a dime in South Texas, where Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-15) hung on by just three points. “District-level polls are full of danger signs for Trump,” David Wasserman, the … Amid the pandemic, we visited fewer districts and personally met with fewer candidates than we typically do. Fortunately, reapportionment and redistricting gives us plenty of hard data to crunch in 2021 — and there's no point in rating House races until we know what the lines are going to look like in state to state. Before then, pollsters and analysts will have time to conduct a proper autopsy, using comprehensive voter file data, of how the polls might have failed to anticipate the 2020 electorate. 16 Click on bars to see solid seats breakdown, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037, FL-26 RT @amyewalter: I know we don’t really do holiday parties these days, if you’re looking to drop some awesome political knowledge and trivia…, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 info@cookpolitical.com. And, FiveThirtyEight had Democrats leading the House ballot by 7.3 points; they won it by 3.1 points. August 30, 2019 @Redistrict. Ind, 15 These included some big upsets: Republicans held every vulnerable seat in Texas, picked up four Biden/Clinton-won seats in California and even picked up two Miami area seats Clinton had carried by more than 15 points in 2016. It will require discipline to stick to these fundamentals when polls start to drown everything else out. Likely Cook Political Report 2020 House Ratings As of November 2, 2020 This table is associated with the following map URL. You can also view this forecast as … Of the 13 Republicans who flipped Democratic-held seats in 2020, all were women and/or minorities. The NRCC spent just $96,000 in coordinated expenditures in FL-27 and $95,000 in CA-39 — a tiny fraction of what it spent in scores of races that both parties' polls (and we) considered more competitive. Democrats are poised to retain and expand their House majority, The Cook Political Report predicts just a day ahead of the 2020 election.Cook issued its final House race predictions for the 2020 election on Monday, and all eight of its ratings changes moved in Democrats' favor. • But this time, instead of a strong majority, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is left with 222 seats and virtually no margin for error — especially with Reps. Cedric Richmond (LA-02), Deb Haaland (NM-01) and Marcia Fudge (OH-11) set to decamp for administration posts. Van Duyne ended up beating Valenzuela, who ran as the progressive in the Democratic primary, by a point - even though non-whites are now a majority in the suburban Dallas seat and Biden carried the district at the top of the ticket. But in a presidential cycle with plenty of voters who aren't immersed in the policy weeds, these attacks worked. And what lessons can we draw for 2022? 0 The only races where Democrats are still holding out hope are New York's 22nd CD, where Rep. Anthony Brindisi trails by 12 votes pending a court-ordered recanvass of votes, and Iowa's 2nd CD, where Democrat Rita Hart is contesting her GOP opponent's certified six vote margin before the House Administration Committee. Rep 3 0 We don’t talk enough about its shortcomings, not just in head-to-head, but also in figuring out what voters are really prioritizing. But Republicans turned the tables in 2020, and it worked. In a new report by the nonpartisan election forecaster the Cook Political Report, seven House races have shifted in the Democratic Party's favor, ... Monday November 16, 2020. In one ad, former GOP Irvine Mayor Beth Van Duyne was flanked by seven police officers and accused her opponent, Democrat Candace Valenzuela, of siding with "radicals" who want to "defund the police, end cash bail and release criminals.". In 2018, Democrats won most of the Toss Ups and even four seats we had rated as "leaning" or "likely" Republican — not entirely dissimilar. And, they won. Rep But Trump's presence atop the ballot did something else as well. These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning. New at @CookPolitical: 12 late-breaking House rating changes, all but one in Democrats’ direction. House Democrats saw a boon to their chances to not only hold on their majority but to expand it in 2020, according to a new analysis from The Cook Political Report. The Cook Political Report shifted eight House seats toward Democrats — and projected that the party would expand its majority in the chamber by 10 to 15 seats — in the nonpartisan prognosticator's final 2020 forecast published Monday.. Why it matters: It highlights how President Trump's polling struggles at the top of the ticket are filtering down ballot, affecting Republicans across … GOP outside groups failed to make a significant investment in a dozen races Democrats won by less than five points, including two they won anyway (CA-39 and FL-27). Our Electoral and Senate ratings generally performed well, with every race at least "leaning" to one party breaking that direction and Toss Ups breaking to the GOP — save for Georgia, where Joe Biden prevailed and both Senate races are in runoffs. And, they won. The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037, Five Takeaways From Our 2020 House Forecast — and Three Resolutions for 2021 and Beyond. The Cook Political Report said four of the races were in Texas, three of which it changed from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" and another which it said was now a "toss up." 2020 Elections; BREAKING: Cook Political Report Shifts VA05 From “Leans Republican” to “Toss Up,” Calls Cameron Webb “Perhaps Dems’ Best House Candidate Anywhere In the Country” "In VA05, Dems may have found their own 'unicorn'," … Rep HOUSE SEATS. Personally I expect these numbers to shift a bit in the Republicans favor even if 2020 is an otherwise good year for Dems. Cook subscribers can read the analysis. October 29: Mississippi moves from Safe to Likely Republican. There's limited evidence for this; exit polls showed that final-week deciders in the presidential race (just five percent of voters) were only marginally more pro-Trump than the other 95 percent. This kind of analysis will undoubtedly lead to changes in the way pollsters approach future races, and perhaps some innovative methodologies that could be road-tested in 2021's off-year elections. Dave Wasserman, Cook's House editor, tweeted: "I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction." : It categorizes all congressional districts not designated as "safe" in that map as of the time specified below the table. Public polls underestimated Republicans up and down the ballot. Solid Democrat Solid Republican. All Rights Reserved. If we had picked one Democrat to have the best chance to survive out of the Toss Up column, it probably wouldn't be Rep. Anthony Brindisi (NY-22), who sits in a district Trump carried handily twice. United States interactive 2020 House Cook Political Report forecast Why? Three are of Cuban ancestry, two were born in South Korea and one was born in Ukraine — allowing them to personalize an anti-socialism message. We and other analysts wrote ad nauseum about Trump's drag on House Republicans, especially in suburban districts. 14 The Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce our 2020 House district databook, a one-stop shop for statistics on demographics and recent election results in all 435 congressional districts. Had all Democrats outperformed by that much, they would have gained a dozen seats. So, what happened? To be fair, no one saw a close race in TX-15 coming. 0 //-->. Dem Republicans Didn't Spend Significantly in 10 Races They Narrowly Lost. Rep Neither party began polling races in earnest until the late summer. David Wasserman. And, many paid the price. Cook Political Report shifted more congressional races to the left, predicting that 2020 could be an even better year for Democrats than the 2018 "blue wave." In its final forecast for Tuesday's election, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted eight additional House seats toward Democrats and projected on Monday that the party would expand its majority in the chamber by 10 to 15. Lean 1 RATINGS SUMMARY. The most credible theory might be one articulated by analyst David Shor: that for years, there's been a rising correlation between low levels of social and institutional trust, higher support for President Trump, and survey non-response. Ind, 9 Now that all 50 states have certified their results (save for one House race in New York's 22nd CD), it's a natural time for a reckoning on what transpired down-ballot. The current 2020 Senate forecast from The Cook Political Report. Meanwhile, of the 29 House Republican freshmen from 2018, only one wasn't a man and only one wasn't white. Why were the polls so consistently biased towards Democrats? Throughout the cycle, Democrats rolled their eyes at Republicans' incessant ads on these themes. Ind, 0 2020 House Vote Tracker | The Cook Political Report 2020 National House Vote Tracker By David Wasserman, Sophie Andrews, Leo Saenger, Lev Cohen, Ally Flinn, and Griff Tatarsky Please note that results are not yet final except where noted in the table below. Had Republicans detected the true down-ballot dynamics, they could have won the House back. 193. Medicare-for-All proponents Kara Eastman and Dana Balter lost to GOP Reps. Don Bacon (NE-02) and John Katko (NY-24) by five and ten points respectively, despite Biden carrying both districts by seven points. We keep missing people who end up turning out to vote.". Both surveys nailed those upsets exactly. This wasn't just the case in heavily blue-collar districts, but high-college suburbs as well, where Trump's 2020 vote totals far outpaced his 2016 totals. Says one GOP consultant, "In 2018, Dems were seen as normal. In other words, polls didn't garden-spray errors in every direction; errors were systemic and fairly precise. With the benefit of a month to reflect, here are five takeaways from 2020's surprises and three lessons for how we might recalibrate our approach for the next cycle. Democrats’ odds in the race for control of the House are seeing yet another uptick, according to a new analysis from the Cook Political Report.. In fact, had Democrats performed exactly five points better on the margin in all 435 districts, every race in our "lean" and "likely" columns would have been correct, Democrats would have won 11 of the 27 Toss Ups, and they would have gained seven seats overall. Otherwise, 25 of the 27 Toss Ups broke to the GOP. In the end, women and minorities helped Republicans win six districts Trump failed to carry. Some analysts hypothesize that polls weren't way off so much as there was a late movement towards Republicans that polls didn't pick up. Five Democrat-controlled seats, five Republican-controlled seats, and the Michigan seat held by Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash have all shifted to likely wins for Democrats. And in October, a Public Opinion Strategies poll showed Republican Young Kim leading Rep. Gil Cisneros 47 percent to 46 percent. Cook Political Report'sfinal prediction for the composition of the House following the 2020 election should be music to Democrats' ears. • Herrera Beutler. 25. But as life (hopefully) returns to normal, we'll recommit ourselves to cultivating as many relationships with local journalists and state-based sources as DC-based consultants and pollsters, who can often get trapped in an echo chamber and miss important signals. But for now, it's okay to be patient. After all, a minuscule number of House Democrats actually identify as "democratic socialists" or have advocated reducing police funding. Republicans won all 27 House races the Cook Political Report rated as “toss-ups” in its 2020 election analysis, in addition to picking up seven of … But he fought to a near-tie by playing up his war against Spectrum, a much-loathed cable and internet provider in Upstate New York and his support for a local flatware manufacturer. But after the rise of AOC, the primaries and 'defund the police,' it was easier to paint them as radical.". To be sure, there were a few outlier polls that got it right. • Although Valenzuela's ads played up her advocacy of school safety on the school board, the damage was too much to overcome. However, there were likely far more voters who entered the final week undecided on their congressional choice than their choice for president. These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. Copyright © 2018 by Cook Political Report. Rep Dem Dem Staggeringly, $196 million of that went to 30 races that didn't turn out to be very close (within five points), including $42 million the parties spent on races Republicans ultimately won by double digits. Our approach to rating races in 2020 was the same as in the past: we construct our analysis based on recent election results and trends, publicly available polling and fundraising data, and hundreds of off-the-record conversations with candidates, party committees, outside groups, pollsters, consultants and state-based journalists. The strongest evidence against a late surge might be the results of Washington's August top-two primary, which boded much better for Republicans than 2018's results and, in retrospect, might have been an overlooked clue. And, as more and more October polls showed Biden with commanding leads, it's possible that more voters went to the polls expecting Biden to win and opted for a GOP "check" against Democrats going too far left, much as in 2016. And, COVID-19 likely exacerbated this partisan non-response bias this year. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");t&&(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Meanwhile, of the 29 House Republican freshmen from 2018, only one wasn't a man and only one wasn't white. And yet, Republicans shattered our and others' expectations, gaining at least 11 seats. Ind, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 info@cookpolitical.com. As of November 2, 2020 The final 2020 House forecast from The Cook Political Report. 0 Texas’s move to the toss up column comes a day after the Cook Political Report's House editor Dave Wasserman declared over Twitter that Biden is favored to win the 2020 … 17 The same was true of private polls. The DCCC/HMP spent a combined $9.8 million on these two races. Cook Political Report on Friday moved its outlook for 20 House races toward Democrats.. Why it matters: President Trump's troubles are spilling over to affect Republicans down the ballot — which could foreshadow a blue wave in November. In 2018, Democrats ran up the score by recruiting political outsiders, especially women with national security backgrounds, to challenge GOP "insiders." The top three most expensive House races of 2020 — in terms of both candidate and outside spending — were California's 25th District ($37.9 million), New Mexico's 2nd District ($36.7 million) and Texas's 22nd District ($34.1 million), according to the Center for Responsive Politics. “House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerry Nadler intends to reissue a subpoena for former White House Counsel Don McGahn’s testimony next year, confirming that Democrats intend to press ahead with its long legal battle to compel testimony from a star witness in special counsel Robert Mueller’s obstruction of justice investigation of President Trump,” Politico reports. Dem Most chose to stay on "offense" on healthcare and COVID in their messaging. Throughout 2020, both parties' House campaign committees (the DCCC and NRCC), as well as their affiliated Super PACs (House Majority PAC and Congressional Leadership Fund), invested tens of millions of dollars on hundreds of district-level surveys — and those polls told an even more consistent story of GOP woes than they told in 2018. Overall, the "core four" outside groups — DCCC, HMP, NRCC and CLF — spent $442 million on House races ($226 million by Democrats to $216 million for Republicans). Had they invested more, we would have been likelier to change our rating. An independent online political newsletter has changed its status on 20 races for the House of Representatives, saying Friday that they were all improving in the direction of Democrats. 0 A New York judge is wading through the electoral “errors and delays” that have marred the race between Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) and former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R), one of the last remaining uncalled races in the country, the Syracuse Post-Standard reports. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 House forecast. Both parties invested accordingly, but the down-ballot anti-Trump "suburban revolt" never materialized on Election Night. The Cook Political Report; Ratings; House HOUSE 2020 House Race Ratings Nov 2, 2020 PDF Document. For example, it may have mattered more than pundits realized that Hispanic Republicans ran against non-Hispanic, non-Spanish speaking Democrats in both FL-27 and TX-23. • • But Republicans turned the tables in 2020, and it worked. Democrats' genuinely progressive challengers fared the worst. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. All Rights Reserved. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report made its final House forecast Monday, a day before the Nov. 3 elections, indicating that a combination of factors … The Cook Political Report's 2020 House District Databook. Cook Report shifts 12 House races, all but one toward Democrats By Joseph Choi - 10/21/20 10:43 AM EDT 315 The Cook Political Report on … ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017 ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018 ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2020 Quarterly reports," accessed September 21, 2020 However, a polling error and a late GOP uptick wouldn't be mutually exclusive, so it's impossible to discount the possibility entirely. The Parties Spent $195 Million on 30 Races that Weren't That Close,